HIGHNEGATIVE
Fitch flags potential price correction (supply overhang)
Fitch projects up to ~15% price decline into 2026 as 200k+ units are expected across 24–26 months.
Affected Areas:
Citywide impact expected
Key Performance Indicators
Real-time market metricsH1 2025 Transaction Volume
125,538
+26.2%6M
Total property transactions in first half of 2025
Total Transaction Value
431B
+26%6M
Total value of all property transactions (AED)
Secondary Market Growth
46%
+46%YTD
YoY growth in secondary market transaction value
Average Rental Yield
6.2%
+6.9%Current
Average gross rental yield across Dubai
Current Market Standing
Market Status
Neutral to Cautious
Sentiment
MIXED
Recommended Strategy
Focus on rent-ready, liquid formats in deep-rental micro-markets; avoid thin-liquidity specs
Positive Factors
- •Record transaction volumes maintaining momentum
- •Strong secondary market performance
- •Robust developer profitability
- •Population growth and economic reforms
Risk Considerations
- •Fitch projects 10-15% price correction by 2026
- •200k+ unit supply pipeline over 24-36 months
- •Global economic uncertainty
- •Potential interest rate volatility
Confidence Level
75%
Market Confidence
Outlook Timeframe: 12-18 months
Key Market Insights
MARKET
Secondary Market Maturation Signal
46% YoY growth in secondary sales value indicates market preference shift toward established, quality properties over speculative off-plan investments.
Action Items:
- •Focus investment strategy on ready, established properties
- •Consider premium positioning for quality secondary market assets
MARKET
Supply Overhang Risk Materializing
Fitch's projection of 200k+ unit deliveries over 24-36 months could pressure pricing, but quality locations with strong fundamentals may outperform.
Action Items:
- •Prioritize locations with strong rental demand
- •Avoid over-supplied micro-markets
Area Analysis
Dubai Marina
Established waterfront community maintaining strong investment appeal with mature infrastructure and consistent rental demand.
Grade A
+7.2%
Price Appreciation
$4.3M
Avg Price
6.5%
Rental Yield
$3100
Price/SqFt
Opportunities
- •Strong short-term rental market
- •Established community with proven track record
- •Waterfront premium maintains value
Risk Factors
- •High supply concentration
- •Tourist-dependent rental market
- •Infrastructure congestion during peak seasons
Market Facts & Data Points
1
Record H1 transactions: 125,538 deals (AED 431B)
Transactions rose 26% YoY in H1 2025 to 125,538, with value reaching ~AED 431B (~$117B).
HIGH ImpactMARKET
Sources:
2
Secondary market value up ~46% YoY (H1 2025)
Shift towards ready, quality stock reflected in stronger secondary sales value in H1 2025.
HIGH ImpactMARKET
Sources:
3
Developer profitability stays robust
Emaar net profit up ~33% in H1 2025 to AED 7.08B, supported by ~46% surge in property sales.
MEDIUM ImpactDEVELOPMENT
Sources:
Latest Market News & Developments
MEDIUMPOSITIVE
Transactions remain resilient on population growth & reforms
Population growth, business inflows, and reforms continue to underpin demand despite global vol.
Affected Areas:
Dubai-wide
Notable Project Launches
Treppan Tower
by Fakhruddin Properties
Jumeirah Village Triangle, JVT
Handover: Q1 2028
280 units
Grade B+
Price Range
$0.8M - $2.5M
Expected ROI
8.5%
Property Types:
APARTMENT
Key Highlights
- •32-storey tower with 1–2BR units and 3BR sky villas
- •Wellness-centric amenities and layouts
- •Sustainable building design with LEED certification target
Why Consider
- •Wellness positioning aligns with rental demand for health-focused living
- •Supply-lite submarket for larger 2–3BR formats in JVT
- •Strong developer track record in mid-market segment
Target Investors
- •Yield-focused investors seeking mid-term handover
- •End-users wanting space and wellness amenities
- •Health-conscious professionals and families
Unique Features
- •Sky villas with private terraces
- •Integrated wellness center with spa facilities
- •Smart home technology throughout
Considerations
- •Longer horizon (2028 handover); construction cycle risk
- •Emerging area with limited public transport connectivity
- •Developer's first project in premium segment
Sources:
V Suites
by ANAX Developments
Business Bay, Business Bay
Handover: 2027
227 units
Grade A
Price Range
$0.8M - $1.8M
Expected ROI
7.8%
Property Types:
STUDIOAPARTMENT
Key Highlights
- •23-storey tower, 227 fully furnished units
- •Italian finishes, smart home, by Venetian designer Enrico
- •Premium Business Bay location with canal views
Why Consider
- •Business Bay micro-market depth supports liquidity
- •Smart, furnished product appeals to rental market
- •Proven area with strong capital appreciation history
Target Investors
- •Short- to mid-term rental investors
- •Urban professionals seeking turnkey solutions
- •International investors wanting managed assets
Unique Features
- •Italian design excellence by renowned architect
- •Fully furnished units with designer interiors
- •Smart building technology integration
Considerations
- •Prime competition in saturated Business Bay market
- •Monitor service charge escalation
- •High-density area with traffic congestion
Sources:
Investment Strategy
Infrastructure-anchored yield stacking
Accumulate units along confirmed transport corridors (e.g., Blue Line) and value-add via furnished, energy-efficient fit-outs to raise rentability and retention. Lower vacancy + modest premium can stack ~50–100 bps on gross yields while maintaining liquidity.
MEDIUM
Investment Horizon
MODERATE
Risk Level
9.5%
Target Return
Implementation Steps
1
Map pipeline around the Dubai Metro Blue Line and near-term nodes; shortlist 3 micro-markets
Timeline: Month 1-2
2
Target floor plans with strong rentability (1–2BR, split bedrooms, work niches)
Timeline: Month 2-3
3
Design a standardized furnishing pack to compress setup time and increase ADR/achievable rent
Timeline: Month 3-4
4
Negotiate developer service-charge clarity and payment schedules; model 2 downside scenarios
Timeline: Month 4-5
5
Refinance post-stabilization to recycle equity if LTV terms remain supportive
Timeline: Month 18-24
Risk Considerations
- •Supply bulge may pressure prices; favor liquidity and rental depth
- •Control service charges and OPEX; avoid amenities with poor utilization
- •Monitor global economic conditions affecting expatriate demand
Sources:
Quick Actions
Ready to Start?
Get personalized investment recommendations
Market Conditions
- •Stable rental demand in established corridors
- •Metro Blue Line construction timeline confirmed
- •Service charge transparency from developers
Additional Resources
Expert Consultation
Get personalized investment advice from our Dubai real estate experts.
Market Updates
Stay ahead with weekly Dubai property market insights and analysis.
Disclaimer: This research-backed content is informational and not financial advice. All investment decisions should be made based on your own circumstances and after consulting with qualified financial professionals. Past performance does not guarantee future results.